Kukula kwa China kukuyembekezeka kutsika mu gawo lachiwiri la chaka chino, malinga ndi Lipoti la China Economic and Financial Outlook Report lotulutsidwa ndi Research Institute of Bank of China."Kuphatikizidwa, kutsika kwa katundu waku China kukuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka 4 peresenti mgawo lachiwiri."“Lipotilo lidatero.
Malinga ndi lipotilo, kukula kwa China kunja kudzakhalabe kofooka mu 2023 chifukwa cha kusintha kosalekeza kwa ndale ndi zachuma padziko lonse lapansi, kufunikira kwa ulesi kunja kwa nyanja, kufooketsa thandizo lamtengo wapatali komanso kutsika kwakukulu mu 2022. Zogulitsa kunja za China zidatsika ndi 6.8 peresenti pa dollar pakati pawo. January ndi February kuyambira chaka chapitacho.
Kuchokera kumalingaliro a mabizinesi akuluakulu, kusiyanasiyana kwa malonda akunja aku China kwakula.Kuyambira Januwale mpaka February 2023, katundu waku China ku United States adapitilira kukula moyipa, kutsika ndi 21.8% chaka ndi chaka, chomwe ndi 2.3 peresenti yayikulu kuposa yomwe idachitika mu Disembala 2022. Zogulitsa ku European Union ndi Japan zidatsika pang'ono, koma kuchuluka kwa kukula. komabe sizinasinthe, motero -12.2% ndi -1.3%.Kutumiza kunja ku ASEAN kudakula mwachangu, ndikuchulukitsa 1.5 peresenti pachaka mpaka 9% kuyambira Disembala 2022.
Kutengera momwe zinthu ziliri, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kumtunda ndi magalimoto ndikwambiri, pomwe kutumizidwa kunja kwa zinthu zomwe zimagwira ntchito kwambiri kukupitilira kutsika.Kuyambira Januwale mpaka February 2023, kutumizidwa kunja kwa zinthu zamafuta oyengedwa ndi zitsulo zidakwera ndi 101.8% ndi 27.5%, motsatana.Kukula kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa magalimoto ndi chassis ndi zida zamagalimoto zinali 65.2% ndi 4%, motsatana.Chiwerengero cha magalimoto otumizidwa kunja (mayunitsi 370,000) chinakwera kwambiri, kukwera ndi 68.2 peresenti chaka ndi chaka, zomwe zimathandizira pafupifupi 60.3 peresenti pakukula kwa mtengo wogulitsa kunja.
Malinga ndi lipotilo, kutumizidwa kunja kwa mipando, zoseweretsa, mapulasitiki, nsapato ndi zovala zikupitilirabe kugwa, popeza chuma chotukuka ku Europe ndi United States chili ndi kufunikira kofooka kwa ogula, kuwononga kwamakampani sikunathe, ndipo mayiko opanga monga Vietnam, Mexico ndi India atenga gawo lazogulitsa kunja kwa China m'magawo ovutitsa anthu ambiri.Anatsika ndi 17.2%, 10.1%, 9.7%, 11.6% ndi 14.7%, omwe anali 2.6, 0.7, 7, 13.8 ndi 4.4 peresenti kuposa mu December 2022, motsatira.
Koma kukula kwa kunja kwa China kunali bwino kuposa zomwe msika unkayembekezera, ndi kuchepa kwa chiwerengero cha 3.1 peresenti kuyambira December 2022. Malinga ndi lipotilo, zifukwa zazikulu zomwe zili pamwambazi ndi izi:
Choyamba, zofuna zapadziko lonse lapansi zili bwino kuposa momwe zikuyembekezeredwa.Pomwe US ​​ISM yopanga PMI idakhalabe m'gawo locheperako mu February, idakwera 0.3 peresenti kuyambira Januware mpaka 47.7 peresenti, kuwongolera koyamba m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi.Chidaliro cha ogula chidakulanso ku Europe ndi Japan.Kuchokera pamndandanda wamitengo yonyamula katundu, kuyambira pakati pa mwezi wa February, Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), index of shipping rate index (TDOI) idayamba kutsika.Chachiwiri, kuyambiranso kwa tchuthi chantchito ndi kupanga ku China pambuyo patchuthi kudakulitsidwa, kutsekereza malo opangira mafakitale ndi zida zogulitsira zidathetsedwa, ndipo kubwezeredwa kwa malamulo panthawi yomwe mliriwo kunali pachimake kudatulutsidwa kwathunthu, zomwe zikupereka chilimbikitso chotumizira kunja. kukula.Chachitatu, mitundu yatsopano yamalonda akunja yakhala mphamvu yoyendetsera kukula kwa malonda akunja.Mlozera wamalonda wamalonda wam'malire m'gawo loyamba la 2023 unali wokwera kuposa momwemo mu 2022, ndipo kuchuluka kwa bizinesi ku Zhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen ndi madera ena otsogola pakupanga mitundu yatsopano yamalonda akunja nthawi zambiri anali ndi kukula kwakukulu kwa chaka ndi chaka.Pakati pawo, kuchuluka kwa malonda amalonda odutsa malire ku Zhejiang kuyambira Januware mpaka February adakwera ndi 73.2% pachaka.
Lipotilo likukhulupirira kuti kukula kwa kunja kwa China kukuyembekezeka kutsika mu gawo lachiwiri, mwayi wamapangidwe ndioyenera kulabadira.Kuchokera pa chinthu chotsitsa, kukonza kwakunja kumakhala ndi kusatsimikizika.Kutsika kwamitengo yapadziko lonse kumakhalabe kokwera ndipo pali kuthekera kwakukulu kuti chuma chapamwamba ku Europe ndi United States chidzakweza chiwongola dzanja mu "masitepe a ana" mu theka loyamba la 2023, ndikuchepetsa kufunikira kwa mayiko.Kuwonongeka kwa mayiko akuluakulu otukuka sikunathe, ndipo chiŵerengero cha malonda a katundu wa zinthu zambiri ku United States chikadali pamtunda woposa 1.5, kusonyeza kuti palibe kusintha kwakukulu poyerekeza ndi mapeto a 2022. Momwemonso M'chaka cha 2022, malonda akunja aku China anali okwera kwambiri, ndipo chaka ndi chaka chiwonjezeko cha 16.3% mu May ndi 17.1% mu June.Zotsatira zake, zogulitsa kunja zidakwera 12.4 peresenti mgawo lachiwiri.