Posachedwa, kampani yolangizira ya Fitch - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence idatulutsa lipoti lolosera, 2023-2027, kuchuluka kwapachaka kwakukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kukhala 2.3%, M'zaka zisanu zapitazi (2017- 2022), index inali -0.7%.Izi zithandiza kulimbikitsa kupanga chitsulo ndi matani 372.8 miliyoni mu 2027 poyerekeza ndi 2022, lipotilo lidatero.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kukwera kwachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kudzakwera kwambiri.
Lipotilo linanena kuti mtsogolo mtsogolo mwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kuchuluka kwachitsulo kudzachokera ku Brazil ndi Australia.Pakadali pano, Vale wawulula dongosolo logwira ntchito lokulitsa kudziko lakunja.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG akukonzekeranso kuyika ndalama mu ntchito zatsopano zowonjezera.Zitsanzo zikuphatikizapo Iron Bridge, yomwe ikutsatiridwa ndi FMG, ndi Gudai Darri, yomwe ikutsatiridwa ndi Rio Tinto.
Lipotilo linanena kuti zaka zitatu kapena zinayi zikubwerazi, chuma cha China chidzawonjezeka.Pakalipano, China ikuyesera kuonjezera mlingo wodzidalira ndikudzichotsa pang'onopang'ono kuchoka ku kudalira migodi ya ku Australia.Kukula kogwira ntchito kwa "ndondomeko yapangodya" kwalimbikitsa kukula kwa mabizinesi amigodi aku China, komanso kupititsa patsogolo chitukuko cha migodi yamayiko akunja ndi makampani aku China monga Baowu, monga projekiti ya Xipo ya China Baowu ndi Rio Tinto.Lipotilo likuyembekeza kuti makampani aku China aku China aziyika patsogolo ndalama zogulira migodi yakunja yachitsulo, monga mgodi waukulu wa Simandou.
Lipotilo limaneneratunso kuti kuyambira 2027 mpaka 2032, pafupifupi chaka chilichonse kukula kwa chitsulo padziko lonse lapansi chikuyembekezeka kukhala -0.1%.Malinga ndi lipotilo, kuchepa kwa kukula kwa kupanga kungayambitsidwe ndi kutseka kwa migodi yaing'ono komanso kutsika kwamitengo yachitsulo kumapangitsa ochita migodi akuluakulu kuchepetsa ndalama zamapulojekiti atsopano.
Malinga ndi lipotilo, kuyambira 2023 mpaka 2027, kupanga chitsulo ku Australia kudzakula pakukula kwapakati pachaka ndi 0.2%.Akuti pafupifupi mtengo wopangira chitsulo ku Australia ndi $ 30 / tani, West Africa ndi $ 40 / tani ~ $ 50 / tani, ndipo China ndi $ 90 / tani.Chifukwa Australia ili pansi pamtengo wapadziko lonse lapansi wachitsulo, ikuyembekezeka kupereka chitetezo chabwino pakugwa kwamitengo yachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi pazaka zingapo zikubwerazi.
Kupanga kwachitsulo ku Brazil kukuyembekezeka kukweranso m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi.Malinga ndi lipotilo, izi zimachitika makamaka chifukwa cha kutsika kwamitengo yopangira ndi kugwirira ntchito m'derali, nkhokwe zochulukirapo zamapulojekiti, zopereka zothandizira, komanso kutchuka kwa opanga zitsulo aku China.Lipotilo likulosera kuti kuyambira 2023 mpaka 2027, kupanga chitsulo ku Brazil kudzakula pakukula kwapakati pa 3.4%, kuchokera ku matani 56.1 miliyoni mpaka matani 482,9 miliyoni pachaka.Komabe, m'kupita kwa nthawi, kukula kwa chitsulo ku Brazil kudzachepa, ndipo chiwerengero cha kukula kwa chaka chikuyembekezeka kukhala 1.2% kuchokera ku 2027 mpaka 2032, ndipo kupanga kudzafika matani 507.5 miliyoni / chaka mu 2032.
Kuphatikiza apo, lipotilo lidawonetsanso kuti mgodi wa Vale's Serra Norte Gelado iron ore udzakulitsa kupanga chaka chino;Ntchito ya N3 ikuyembekezeka kuyamba mu 2024;Ntchito ya S11D yawonjezera kale kupanga m'magawo atatu oyambilira a chaka chandalama, kuthandiza kulimbikitsa kutulutsa kwachitsulo ndi 5.8 peresenti pachaka mpaka matani 66.7m, polojekitiyi ikuyembekezeka kukulitsa mphamvu ndi matani 30m pachaka. .